No American F-35? Abu Dhabi May Opt for China’s J-20 Fighter Jets - The Media Line (2024)

As the UAE is keen to acquire fifth-generation fighter jets to enhance its military capabilities, the choice between the US and China remains uncertain as both powers fear their technologies will be decoded by the other

China and the United Arab Emirates have expressed their commitment to sharing expertise in defense and security to enhance the capabilities of their military personnel and security institutions, according to a statement from China’s foreign ministry on Sunday. The announcement was made in a joint declaration after Emirati President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with China’s President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Thursday.

Nivine Afiouni, a UAE-based Middle East geopolitical analyst, tells The Media Line that the key elements of such future China-UAE defense and security deals include cooperation in military training, joint exercises, and the exchange of technologies. Technologies, she added, include a focus on advanced military equipment, unmanned aerial systems and especially attack jets such as the Chinese Fifth-generation J-20 fighter jets.

Fifth-generation planes are the latest and most advanced fighter aircraft, featuring cutting-edge technology and capabilities. They incorporate advanced avionics, sensor fusion, superior maneuverability, supersonic speeds, and advanced weapons systems, allowing them to engage a wide range of targets with precision. Examples of fifth-generation fighters include the American F-35 and the Chinese J-20.

There have been notable challenges, such as delays in the delivery of the F-35 fighter jets. The US did not fulfill this commitment due to various geopolitical concerns, which created a gap in the UAE’s defense procurement plans. China offers flexible terms for defense equipment, making it an attractive alternative.

While the UAE maintains a strong defense trade relationship with the US, says Afiouni, “There have been notable challenges, such as delays in the delivery of the F-35 fighter jets. The US did not fulfill this commitment due to various geopolitical concerns, which created a gap in the UAE’s defense procurement plans,” she said. In contrast, Afiouni continued, “China offers flexible terms for defense equipment, making it an attractive alternative.”

Nicholas Lyall, a China and Middle East-focused policy analyst and advisor based in the region, agrees that the US initially approved the sale of F-35s to the UAE in 2021, but the deal has been put on hold. The primary reason is the growing US concerns over the increasing prevalence of Huawei infrastructure in the UAE and the perceived surveillance threat this poses to US military infrastructure in the country.

Therefore, he tells The Media Line since the UAE has deemed it necessary to acquire fifth-generation fighters, there are three possible scenarios.

The first, Lyall says, is that UAE will acquiesce to US sensitivities over Huawei and acquire the F-35s. However, that would likely require the US to substantially subsidize a Western telecoms provider to replace Huawei, given the notably cheaper costs of Huawei services and the existing centrality of these Huawei services and infrastructure to the UAE’s development strategy. “That is not inconceivable, but it’s hard to see it happening expeditiously, and the UAE would need an expeditious solution,” he added.

The second scenario would mean the US foregoing these sensitivities and proceeding with the F-35 deal. “Option B seems highly unlikely given the politically toxic nature of the Huawei topic in Washington,” Lyall continued.

It wouldn’t seem to be the right time to further rock the boat of UAE-US relations, given some of the strategic complications that are facing that relationship in other parts of the region.

Lastly, the UAE could maintain its Huawei ties and pursue acquiring the J-20s. However, Lyall pointed out, the J-20 acquisition would threaten the inter-operability capacity of the UAE Air Force with its numerous partner states in the region that use American jet platforms. Moreover, “It wouldn’t seem to be the right time to further rock the boat of UAE-US relations, given some of the strategic complications that are facing that relationship in other parts of the region.”

Lyall explains that on China’s side, there would likely be significant concerns about ensuring that, if they sold the J-20s to the UAE, the UAE-China defense relationship would be secure enough against the US to prevent any risk of J-20 secrets falling into the wrong hands.

Dr. Li-Chen Sim, a non-resident fellow at the US Middle East Institute, says it is quite possible that the UAE will see more sales of Chinese-made drones, which are free from operational restrictions (unlike American drones) and perhaps dual-use space equipment like satellites in the future.

Sim tells The Media Line that small-scale defense trade with China, which is regarded as a threat by Washington, “can also signal optionality to the US, from whom the UAE would like to purchase more advanced defense equipment such as F-35s.” She added that other advantages of purchasing Chinese drones include possibly using them with no restriction in countries such as Libya, Sudan, and Syria, and getting Chinese companies to help localize some aspects of defense manufacturing in the UAE.

It is aiming to boost its defense and deterrence capacities by localizing some defense manufacturing and relying less on imports, rather than improving its offensive posture.

The UAE, says Sim, is currently ranked behind Iran and Saudi Arabia in terms of military strength. “It is aiming to boost its defense and deterrence capacities by localizing some defense manufacturing and relying less on imports, rather than improving its offensive posture.”

Afiouni agreed that Abu Dhabi’s main interest in the security trade deal with China lies in defense, particularly diversifying its defense partnerships and, as mentioned earlier, gaining access to advanced military technologies. “Diversification helps the UAE mitigate risks of over-reliance on a single partner and strengthens its strategic autonomy,” she noted.

Alfouni argued that by enhancing its military capabilities, the UAE also positions itself as a key player in regional security, able to contribute to peacekeeping and conflict resolution efforts. “Additionally, a robust military presence allows the UAE to safeguard its critical infrastructure, such as oil and gas facilities, and assert its sovereignty in a volatile geopolitical landscape,” she concluded.